CPD Australia Infrastructure Tracker
Tracking cost overruns and delivery failures across Australia's national, state and territory infrastructure portfolio — sourced exclusively from ANAO, VAGO, state audit offices and official government reports.
Each scheme carries an ETI score (0–10) & Stranded Value · Total stranded economic value: A$11.67bn
CPD stands for Continued Prolonged Delays — a general acronym chosen to highlight the core issues of cost overrun and delayed delivery in public infrastructure. Any similarity to the name or acronym of any existing organisation is purely coincidental and is not intended as a reflection on, or reference to, any such body.
| # | Project | State | Sector | Status | Announced | Current Cost | Variance | Delay (wks) | Original Target | Revised / Actual |
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All costs and programme data are drawn from official Australian Government, Infrastructure Australia, ANAO, and state government sources. This tracker is maintained by Kevin Barry QS (QUINTIN QS) and is not an official government publication. ETI scores and Stranded Value figures are independent analytical indicators — they do not replicate scheme-specific Infrastructure Australia appraisals or equivalent transport modelling. BCR inputs use published or analogous benchmarks; delivery certainty scores reflect professional judgement applied consistently. The methodology is fully disclosed and grounded in HM Treasury Green Book principles (2026 update), adapted for the Australian context. If any department holds more accurate scheme data, QUINTIN QS will update immediately upon notification. 🍓 If you believe any figure or fact shown here is incorrect, please write to mail@kevinbarryqs.com with the relevant scheme name, the correct figure, and a source reference — we will review and correct immediately if the evidence supports it. We are, after all, still human.
CPD Index (0–100): CPD-C (Cost Performance) measures the proportion of schemes delivered at or near announced cost, with a severity penalty for overruns greater than 25%. CPD-D (Delivery Performance) measures the proportion of schemes free from significant delay, with a minor penalty for smaller slippages. The combined CPD score applies a 60/40 weighting — 60% CPD-D (Delivery) and 40% CPD-C (Cost), reflecting the judgement that delivery failure imposes compounding societal and economic costs beyond the overrun figure alone. A score of 100 indicates a perfect delivery record; 0 indicates complete systemic failure.
ETI — recognised by infrastructure funders and development economists: The ETI framework mirrors the approach used by infrastructure funders, bond markets, and recognised development economists when assessing the productive value of public capital expenditure. Its components draw on HM Treasury Green Book benefit-cost ratio methodology, deprivation weighting consistent with Levelling Up Fund criteria, and network effect analysis aligned with WebTAG multi-modal appraisal guidance — the same analytical frameworks referenced by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, development finance institutions, and institutional investors when evaluating public infrastructure programmes.
Australian governments spent A$34 billion more on transport infrastructure than first promised — a 21% average overrun across all projects over A$20m completed since 2001.
Megaprojects (>A$1bn) overran by 30% on average; nearly half exceeded initial costs. Projects announced prematurely accounted for three-quarters of all overruns.
The 2024-25 ANAO Major Projects Report (21 Defence projects) recorded A$37bn in total expenditure with A$37.4bn in cumulative cost overruns and 404 months of aggregate schedule slippage — equivalent to 33 years of collective delay across 21 programmes.
The Hunter Class Frigate programme alone saw its approved budget rise to A$25.9bn, making them the most expensive frigates globally at ~A$8.6bn per vessel.
Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg's megaproject database identifies the "Iron Law of Megaprojects": nine out of ten projects have cost overruns; overruns of 50% are common and over 50% are not uncommon.
Australia's canonical Sydney Opera House ran to a 1,400% cost overrun. Australia's data broadly matches global trends; premature political announcements are the primary amplifier.
Australia's 5-year Major Public Infrastructure Pipeline stands at A$213 billion (2023-24 to 2027-28), down 8% from the prior year as governments manage construction market capacity.
Land transport construction costs increased 51–53% since 2010-11, with as much growth in the 3 years 2020–23 as in the preceding 10 years (Infrastructure Australia, 2024 Market Capacity Report).
| Scheme | Source | Publisher |
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Fewer promises. Properly prepared projects. Honest cost ranges. Protected funding. Named accountability. Build, reset or stop — never leave a project drifting indefinitely.